Pahalgam Terror Attack and India’s Strategic Response: A Watershed in Indo-Pak Relations

 

📍 GS Paper 2: International Relations | GS Paper 3: Internal Security

Relevant Topics: India-Pakistan Relations, Terrorism, Indus Waters Treaty, SAARC, Diplomacy, Bilateral Agreements, Geography of Indus System

🔷 Why in News?

 

• • In April 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam (Baisaran valley), Jammu and Kashmir led to the tragic killing of 26 civilians. The attack was claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF)—a Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) proxy.
  • In response, the Indian government unveiled a 5-point strategic plan, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—a major diplomatic escalation.

🔍 The Resistance Front (TRF): A Quick Overview

 

• • Formed in 2020, post-LeT leadership decapitation and abrogation of Article 370.

  • Banned under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) in 2023.

  • Acts as a “facade outfit” for LeT to project attacks as local insurgency.

  • Engaged in terror recruitment, arms smuggling, and infiltration from Pakistan.

🛑 India’s 5-Point Action Plan: Strategic Countermeasures

 

🌍 How Has Pakistan Responded?

🌐 Geopolitical Factors Behind the Attack

 

• • India’s Article 370 Move (2019): Viewed by Pakistan as a challenge to its PoK stance.
  • Pakistan’s Isolation: Diminishing U.S. support post-Afghanistan; reduced Chinese backing; Gulf disengagement.
  • Economic Crisis: High inflation, investor exit, and Baloch insurgency weakening state capacity.
  • Timing and Messaging: Attack coincided with PM Modi’s Saudi visit & U.S. VP’s India trip—Pakistan’s attempt to reassert geopolitical relevance.

🌊 Geography & Strategic Significance of the Indus Waters

 

🗺️ The Indus Basin System:

• 1960 Treaty brokered by World Bank.

• 80% of Indus system water flows to Pakistan.

• India allowed non-consumptive use of Western rivers for hydropower & irrigation.

🏛️ India’s Treaty Suspension: Legal and Strategic Context

Legal Grounds:

• Vienna Convention (Article 62): Permits treaty suspension under “fundamental change of circumstances”.

• Article XII of IWT: Allows modification by mutual agreement—India invoked this in 2023 & 2024.

Strategic Intent:

• Signal to Pakistan that terrorism has consequences, even on water diplomacy.

• Potential to speed up hydropower projects like Kishanganga and Ratle.

⚠️ Implications of Suspending IWT

 

For India:

• Greater operational flexibility on Western rivers.

• Halt to Pakistani inspections of Indian dams.

• Can conduct reservoir flushing year-round.

For Pakistan:

• Water security at risk—80% of agriculture depends on Indus waters.

• Flood forecasting data disrupted.

• Likely to pursue World Bank arbitration or seek Chinese backing.

📝 Reservoir Flushing: Technique to remove sediment from dam reservoirs to extend dam life and maintain water flow.

🏞️ Key Indian Projects on the Indus System

🇮🇳 Long-Term Strategic Recommendations for India

 

1. Strengthen Deterrence:

• Advanced border surveillance (e.g., smart fencing, drones).

• Build resilient infrastructure in J&K and border states.

2. Global Diplomacy:

• Leverage UN Security Council & FATF to isolate Pakistan diplomatically.

• Advocate collective action on state-sponsored terrorism.

3. Water Diplomacy as Leverage:

• Continue developing Indus infrastructure within IWT limits.

• Use controlled pressure to shape Pakistan’s behavior.

4. Internal Stability:

• Counter-radicalization programs in border areas.

• Promote national integration and communal harmony.

🧭 Conclusion

 

• • The Pahalgam attack and India’s calibrated but bold reaction mark a significant shift in Indo-Pak relations.

• • By suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, India has converted a traditionally diplomatic issue into a strategic pressure point.

• • Going forward, India must balance deterrence with diplomacy, ensuring security without losing its international moral high ground.

 

 

QuizTime:

 

Mains Questions:

 

Model Answer:

 

✅ Answer Structure:

Introduction:

• • The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank, has long been a symbol of Indo-Pak cooperation despite hostilities. However, India’s recent suspension of the IWT in response to cross-border terrorism signifies a strategic departure from its previous restraint in using water as a diplomatic tool.

Legal Implications:

• • Article XII (3) of the IWT allows modifications through mutual consent but not unilateral suspension.

  • Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (1969) allows withdrawal in case of “fundamental change of circumstances,” which India may cite due to persistent terror threats.

  • Pakistan may contest the move in the Permanent Court of Arbitration or seek World Bank intervention.

Diplomatic Implications:

• • Downgrading of diplomatic ties: Reduction of High Commission staff and expulsion of defence advisors.

  • May invite international scrutiny from global bodies like the UN, particularly due to the humanitarian angle of water rights.

  • Could set a precedent for other global transboundary water disputes, affecting India’s image as a responsible regional power.

Geopolitical Implications:

• • Signals a shift in India’s strategic calculus, using hydrological leverage.

  • Increased pressure on Pakistan’s food security, power generation, and urban water supply.

  • Risk of escalation if Pakistan perceives this as an “act of war,” as publicly claimed.

  • May drive Pakistan closer to China or other regional powers seeking influence in South Asia.

Conclusion:

• • While the suspension of the IWT marks a bold diplomatic maneuver, India must balance its strategic assertiveness with international legal norms and humanitarian considerations. Long-term peace and stability require calibrated responses that reinforce both national security and India’s global stature.

 

 

Model Answer:

 

✅ Answer Structure:

Introduction:

• • The recent Pahalgam attack by The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), highlights the persistent threat of cross-border terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir. This not only destabilizes internal security but also impacts India’s foreign policy and regional peace.

Link Between Cross-Border Terrorism and Regional Instability:

• Internal Destabilization: Provokes communal tension, disrupts economic development, and increases militarization in Kashmir.

• External Security Challenge: Strains Indo-Pak relations, hampers diplomatic efforts, and escalates border conflicts.

• International Image: Undermines India’s global standing in human rights and regional peace-building initiatives.

• SAARC Dysfunction: Regional cooperation through platforms like SAARC is compromised due to mistrust and visa restrictions.

Comprehensive Response Framework:

• Security Measures:

  • Deployment of advanced surveillance (satellite imagery, AI-based border monitoring).

  • Strengthening intelligence networks and coordination among security agencies.

• Diplomatic Actions:

  • Raising terrorism issues at the UN Security Council and other global forums.

  • Advocacy for blacklisting Pakistan in FATF for terror financing.

• Hydrological and Trade Leverage:

  • Strategic suspension of treaties like IWT to increase pressure.

  • Trade embargoes and revocation of special bilateral arrangements (e.g., SAARC Visa Exemption).

• Socio-political Engagement:

  • Empowerment of local communities through development schemes.

  • De-radicalization programs and counter-narrative initiatives in vulnerable regions.

Conclusion:

Cross-border terrorism must be addressed through a multi-pronged approach combining military vigilance, legal action, diplomatic pressure, and social cohesion. Only a calibrated and holistic strategy can ensure long-term stability and safeguard India’s national interests.

All Mains Questions: Read Here

 

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